Schlagwort-Archive: #Balkan

Hybrid wars 5 Breaking the Balkans IV Andrew KORYBKO

http://orientalreview.org/2016/05/27/hybrid-wars-5-breaking-the-balkans-iv/(Please read Part I, Part II, and Part III before this article)

Part III heavily detailed the three most explosive regional factors currently threatening the Balkans, whereas this current chapter will look at three less imminent, but no less impactful, ones that could also throw the region’s stability into jeopardy.

The Croatian-Serbian Missile Race (…)

Hybrid Wars 5. Breaking the Balkans (II) | Oriental Review

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Quelle: Hybrid Wars 5. Breaking the Balkans (II) | Oriental Review

Hybrid Wars 4. In the Greater Heartland (IV) | Oriental Review

Hybrid Wars 4. In the Greater Heartland (IV)

Fri, Apr 15, 2016

Central Asia, Hybrid Wars

By Andrew KORYBKO (USA)

Hybrid Wars 4. In the Greater Heartland (IV)

(Please read Parts I, II, and III prior to this article)

The US’ History Of Regional Revolution Attempts

The most significant destabilizing scenario that could ever occur in Central Asia is an “Arab Spring”-like event that ravages the region and irreversibly upsets its existing political balance. The interesting aspect about this possibility is that it was actually attempted twice before, and furthermore, this was even before the “Arab Spring” ever happened. Before delving into the details and reexamining some overlooked aspects of history, it’s important to remind the reader that the US has always been endeavoring to initiate region-wide transformations of power.

The “Spring Of Nations” And “Balkan Spring”:

The first such success in having this happen was the 1989 “Spring of Nations”, which in retrospect can be seen as the ‘first Arab Spring’, albeit much more peaceful than what transpired 22 years later. The series of events much more closely related to the “Arab Spring” are the Yugoslav Wars, which in their own way were a chain reaction of conventional and unconventional conflicts born out of the 1991 independence movements, otherwise defined by the author as the “Balkan Spring”. Because large-scale, anti-government (as in against the federal center of Belgrade) social movements preceded the outbreak of dirty wars, the Balkan Spring can be defined as the spiritual forerunner of the “Arab Spring”. (…)

 

Quelle: Hybrid Wars 4. In the Greater Heartland (IV) | Oriental Review

Hybrid Wars 4. In the Greater Heartland (II)

orientalreview.org

Hybrid Wars 4. In the Greater Heartland (II)

Editorial

(Please read Part I prior to this article)

“The Eurasian Balkans”

As promising of a potential that the Greater Heartland has in fulfilling what seems to be the world’s inevitable multipolar destiny, it runs the risk of being held back by the adroit manipulation of its “Eurasian Balkan” socio-political vulnerabilities. To bring the reader up to speed real quick, this is the idea first espoused by Zbigniew Brzezinski that the mass of territory spanning from North Africa to Central Asia is riskily threatened by large-scale fragmentation along identity-based lines (ethnic, religious, historical, etc.), mirroring on a much larger scale the demographic “irregularities” that intensified the fratricidal Balkan Wars of the early 1990s.

These preexisting identity differences never played much of a role in domestic or regional affairs until the US began experimenting with them in the mid-2000s until the present day, and the fruits of its socio-political labor have already led to the manufactured “Sunni-Shia rivalry”. Given that the US has been wildly successful in militantly reviving as distantly dormant of a conflict as the more than millennium-old sectarian divide in Islam (hitherto peacefully expressed for the most part), it’s not unlikely that it could do the same with less grandiose and more recently occurring identity conflicts such as the ones that will be concisely (but not comprehensively) enumerated below:

Iran:

The successor state to the ancient civilization of Persia is comprised of a multiplicity of identities that include the Azeris, Kurds, and Baloch. For the most part, shared civilizational patriotism among the disparate ethnicities and the explicit militancy expressed against them by the external American enemy over the decades has kept all of the demographic units largely united, but current trends point to a possible weakening of this civil symbiosis. For starters, rising Azeri nationalism could pose a secessionist challenge to the authorities if it’s not kept under control, as this group is estimated to constitute a whopping 25% of the population by some metrics and is heavily concentrated in the country’s northwest economic hub.

Furthermore, there’s also the Kurdish minority that lives in close proximity to this zone and along nearly half of the Iraqi border. It’s well known how nationalistic the Kurds have been over the past couple of years, and with the War on ISIL steadily drawing to a close, it’s predictable that this transnational ethnic group will take on a more influential and independent role in regional affairs. The New Cold War struggle between the unipolar and multipolar worlds in winning Kurdish loyalty is absolutely key in determining the future security of Iran, since if this influential group comes to side more with the US than its rivals, it could be used as a destabilizing proxy in militantly trying to achieve a pro-American transnational “Kurdistan”. (…)

Full article read:

http://orientalreview.org/2016/04/01/hybrid-wars-4-in-the-greater-heartland-ii/

 

A. KORYBKO Hybrid War to break the Balkans?

In the spirit of the New Cold War and following on its success in snuffing out South Stream, the US has prioritized its efforts in obstructing Russia’s Balkan Stream pipeline, and for the most part, they’ve regretfully succeeded for the time being. The first challenge came from the May 2015 Color Revolution attempt in Macedonia, which thankfully
was repulsed by the country’s patriotic citizenry. Next up on the destabilization agenda was the political turmoil that threatened to take hold of Greece in the run-up and aftermath of the austerity referendum, the idea being that if Tsipras were deposed, then Balkan Stream would be replaced with the US-friendly Eastring project. Once more, the Balkans proved resilient and the American plot was defeated, but it was the third and most directly antagonist maneuver that snipped the project in the bud and placed it on indefinite standby. (…)

Beijing Is The Balkans’ Last Hope It’s thus far been established that the Russian-Chinese Strategic Partnership intended to revolutionize the
European continent with an infusion of multipolar influence along the Balkan Corridor, which was supposed to support Balkan Stream and the Balkan Silk Road. Regretfully, however, the US has temporarily succeeded in putting the brakes on Balkan Stream, thus meaning that the Balkan Silk Road is the only presently viable multipolar megaproject envisioned to run through the region. On that account, it’s China, not Russia, which is
carrying the torch of multipolarity through the Balkans, although Beijing is of course partially depending on Russia’s established influence there to help secure their shared geostrategic objective and assist in making it
a reality. At any rate, the Balkan Silk Road is arguably more important than the Balkan Stream for the time being, and as such, it’s worthy to pay extra attention to its strategic details in order to better grasp why it
represents the Balkans’ last multipolar hope. (…)

See the full text as PDF: KORYBKO A Hybrid War to break the Balkans_12-05-2015

Original: http://orientalreview.org/2015/11/27/a-hybrid-war-to-break-the-balkans/

Guess, who’s coming to the Moscow parade? The US-NATO control of the Balkan ruling elites

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Recently, the president of the Czech Republic Milos Zeman made news around the world when he publicly confronted the US ambassador to the Czech Republic Andrew Schapiro about the ambassador’s statement that Zeman’s attendance of the Victory Day parade in Moscow would be “awkward”. “I can’t imagine the Czech ambassador in Washington would give advice to the American president where to travel,” Zeman said. “I won’t let any ambassador have a say about my foreign travels.“ And, then, in order to make concrete his displeasure at the attempted interference, he added that Schapiro “has the door to the castle [Zeman’s presidential residence] closed”.[1] (…) http://criticalgeopolitics.blog.com/