Schlagwort-Archive: #Wladimir Putin

Revisiting the win-win-win-win outcome in Syria – The Saker

A bird’s eye view of the vineyard

Revisiting the win-win-win-win outcome in Syria

[this analysis was written for the Unz Review]

In his recent article “The Road to Damascus: How the Syria War Was Won” Pepe Escobar summarized the outcome of the war in Syria in the following way:

It’s a quadruple win. The U.S. performs a face saving withdrawal, which Trump can sell as avoiding a conflict with NATO ally Turkey. Turkey has the guarantee – by the Russians – that the Syrian Army will be in control of the Turkish-Syrian border. Russia prevents a war escalation and keeps the Russia-Iran-Turkey peace process alive. And Syria will eventually regain control of the entire northeast.”

This otherwise excellent summary overlooks two out of three members of the “Axis of Kindness”, including Israel and the KSA.  Of course, later in his analysis Pepe does address these actors, and also includes Kuwait. Furthermore, a thorough discussion of what took place would have to also include China, Hezbollah, Yemen and the EU (well, the ones that matter, the UK and France.  The rest are just voiceless colonies of the USA).

Most of the analyses of what just took place focused on the “what”.  I will try to look into the “why” and the “how” of what just happened in Syria.  Still,  I don’t propose to make such a detailed analysis, but I do want to re-classify the actors in a somewhat different way: by their relative strength.

Actor Theoretical Strength
The “Axis of Kindness”:United States+CENTCOM+NATO+Israel+KSA by far the most powerful actor almost by any measure: a bigger military force then all the other actors combined (at least when looked at regionally), huge economic power (the dollar is still THE #1 currency on the planet), total control of the region (via CENTCOM) and quasi unconditional support from Europe (via NATO).  Finally, Israel does pack a powerful military punch.  This actor has only ONE weakness, but more about that later.
Iran+Hezbollah+Houthi+Shia forces in Iraq in regional terms, Iran is the local superpower which can even successfully defy the Axis of Kindness forces (and has done so since the Islamic Revolution of 1979).
Russia+Syria I placed Russia and Syria in the same group and I could have added Iran, but since I believe that Russia objectively has more power over the Syrian government than Iran, I think that it is important to put Russia and Syria together simply because Damascus cannot say “no” to Moscow, but could do so, at least in theory, to Tehran.  Finally, Russia and Iran agree on the main issues, but have different visions for the future of the Middle-East.  Thus this is another reason to look at them separately, even if not necessarily in opposition to each other.  In military terms, Russia is very strong, then very vulnerable, then very strong again, it all depends on your level of analysis (see below)
Turkey+pro-Turkish factions in Syria That one is a difficult one to classify.  On one hand, Turkey does not have any regional allies (the Ottoman Empire left only hatred and deep resentment in its former colonies).  For a while, the pro-Turkish factions, which were liberally showered with weapons, money, training, logistical support, etc, by the US and the KSA, but eventually these factions grew weaker and weaker until they reached a state of advanced impotence leaving Turkey pretty much alone (we will also look into that below).
The Kurds For a while, they sure looked potentially powerful: not only did the Kurds have a pretty big military power (albeit mostly one restricted to infantry), they had the support of Axis of Kindness and, especially, Israel which saw any form of Independent Kurdistan as a great tool to weaken and even threaten Iraq, Turkey, Iran and Syria.  Furthermore, the Kurds happened to control a lot of oil rich regions and they could always retreat in the mountainous areas if needed.
The Takfiris (i.e. the many and constantly name-changing franchises of what used to be called “al-Qaeda”). In reality, the Takfiris really ought to be classified together with the Axis of Kindness since they have been the foot-soldiers/cannon-fodder for the AngloZionist since the 1980s (from Afghanistan then to modern day Syria).  Nonetheless, we will consider them as distinct from the rest of the Axis of Kindness forces.

Of course, and just like any other taxonomy, this one is necessarily somewhat subjective and others might use different criteria or categories.  Now let’s look at what I believe is the key to the control of the entire region: the ability to place “boots on the ground” or the lack of such an ability: (…)

Source: http://thesaker.is/revisiting-the-win-win-win-win-outcome-in-syria/?fbclid=IwAR3FrI33yyB0PDDMmwuuX7GI82o42aT2_zptfyZUj3WdExOqOYpxh7JsP90

 

 

The Russian-Turkish Deal on Syria: Who Won and Who Lost? – Global Research

Andrew KORYBKO 23.10.2019

Presidents Putin and Erdogan reached a deal on Syria that represents a decisive victory for Turkey while being a drastic climbdown for Damascus after President Assad vowed earlier that day that the Syrian Arab Army was “prepared to support any group carrying out popular resistance against the Turkish aggression” only to later “fully support” the […]

Quelle: The Russian-Turkish Deal on Syria: Who Won and Who Lost? – Global Research

Press statement following Russian-Turkish talks

Press statement following Russian-Turkish talks

20:00
Sochi
Press statement following Russian-Turkish talks. With President of Turkey Erdogan Recep Tayyip.
Press statement following Russian-Turkish talks. With President of Turkey Erdogan Recep Tayyip.
7 of 9
Press statement following Russian-Turkish talks. With President of Turkey Erdogan Recep Tayyip.

President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Mr President, ladies and gentlemen,

We thank the President of Turkey for accepting our offer made during a recent telephone conversation, and today he and representatives of his delegation arrived in Sochi to discuss the developments in the Syrian Arab Republic, including in the northeast, beyond the Euphrates.

Mr Erdogan gave a detailed explanation of the goals of the Turkish military operation along the Syrian border. We have noted many times that we understand Turkey’s desire to take measures that would guarantee its national security.

We share Turkey’s concerns about the growing threat of terrorism and ethnic and religious disputes in that region. We believe these disputes and separatist sentiments have been fueled artificially from the outside.

It is important to prevent members of terrorist organisations, such as ISIS, whose militants have been taken prisoners by Kurd military groups and try to break free, from taking advantage of the actions of the Turkish military units.

Syria must be liberated from illegal foreign military presence. We believe that the only way to achieve strong and long-lasting stability in Syria is to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country. This is our principled position, and we have discussed it with the President of Turkey.

It is important that our Turkish partners share this approach. The Turks and the Syrians will have to protect peace on the border together, which would be impossible without mutually respectful cooperation between the two countries.

In addition to this, a broad dialogue between the Syrian government and the Kurds living in northeastern Syria must be launched. It is clear that all the rights and interests of the Kurds as an integral part of the multi-ethnic Syrian nation can only be fully considered and fulfilled via such an inclusive dialogue.

Of course, during our talks with the President of Turkey, we discussed further steps to promote the peaceful political process in Syria, which the Syrians will conduct within the Constitutional Committee in cooperation with the United Nations.

The guarantors of the Astana format have meticulously worked on it for many years.

We believe the situation on the ground must not prevent the long-awaited launch of the committee in Geneva next week – October 29–30.

Naturally, we also discussed humanitarian issues. We consider it necessary to continue helping Syrian refugees to return home, which will substantially alleviate the socioeconomic burden shouldered by the countries that agreed to take in Syrians. First and foremost this applies to the Republic of Turkey.

We urge the international community, primarily relevant UN agencies, to be more active in rendering humanitarian aid to all Syrians going home, without any discrimination, politicisation and preconditions. We also used today’s meeting to discuss current bilateral issues.

We noted with satisfaction our growing trade. Last year it increased by 16 percent. We exchanged views on what to do in the near future and expressed confidence that the implementation of the agreements on settlements and payments in national currencies signed in early October will also facilitate the further growth of trade.

We spoke about an important document that provides not only for more active use of the ruble and lira but also broader acceptance of the Russian Mir cards in Turkey and the connection of Turkish banks and companies to the Bank of Russia’s financial messaging system. I believe this is yet another step forward on expanding tourist exchanges.

We spoke about the whole package of our relations, including major projects that we are actively and successfully developing. We are also deepening our military-technical cooperation. I would like to note that cross-years of culture and tourism are held with success in Russia and Turkey.

In conclusion, I would like to thank the President of Turkey and all our friends and colleagues for a business-like and sincere conversation. We intend to further develop our cooperation in all areas on the principles of neighbourliness and respect for each other’s interests.

I am pleased to say that as a result of lengthy and intensive work we managed to make decisions that the foreign ministers of our countries will voice after our statements.

I think these decisions are very important, if not historic, and will allow us to settle the fairly acute situation on the Syrian-Turkish border.

* * *

After the presidents of Russia and Turkey made statements for the press, the foreign ministers of the two countries read out the text of the memorandum of understanding adopted following the Russian-Turkish talks.

Source: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61876

Treffen mit Sergei Lawrow und Sergei Schoigu – Wladimir Putin hatte ein Arbeitstreffen mit Außenminister Sergei Lawrow und Verteidigungsminister Sergei Schoigu (dt.)

Eva Strieffler hat einen Beitrag in der Gruppe „Friedenswerkstatt Hamburg“ geteilt.

Liebe Mitmenschen, wir haben das auf der offiziellen Website des russischen Präsidenten Putin in englischer Sprache veröffentlichte Protokoll eines Arbeitstreffens übersetzt, bei dem der russische Präsident mit Außenminister Lawrow und Verteidigungsminister Schoigu die neuen Entwicklungen nach der Kündigung des INF-Vertrages durch die USA besprochen hat. Aus dem umfangreichen und äußerst informativen Text, haben die hiesigen Medien ganze 3 Sätze rausgenommen…… Einige Sender, wie WELT TV bringen jetzt nach und nach aus dem Zusammenhang gerissene Text-Teile reißerisch als Breaking News…. Hier lesen Sie, was wirklich gesagt wurde.

„Treffen mit Sergei Lawrow und Sergei SchoiguWladimir Putin hatte ein Arbeitstreffen mit Außenminister Sergei Lawrow und Verteidigungsminister Sergei Schoigu “

Der Präsident Russlands, 02.02.19
(s. http://www.luftpost-kl.de/luftpost-arc…/…/LP01619_060219.pdf )
( http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/59763 )

Vollständiges transkript von Vladimir Putin’s annual news conference December 20, 2018

http://thesaker.is/president-vladimir-putins-annual-news-conference-december-20-2018/

President Vladimir Putin’s annual news conference December 20, 2018

2933 Views December 20, 2018 6 Comments

President Vladimir Putin’s annual news conference

December 20, 2018

President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Good afternoon, colleagues, friends.

Let us begin our traditional end-of-year meeting that we call a news conference.

As always, I will spend just a few brief seconds to sum up the results of the outgoing year. A lot has been said already, but I have the latest data reflecting the most recent results, some just a couple of days old.

In the first nine months of 2018, GDP increased by 1.7 percent, while the Economic Development Ministry expects the annual increase to total 1.8 percent. Industrial output was growing at a faster pace, totalling 2.9 percent in the first ten months of 2018, with the annual results expected at 3 percent, up from a 2.1 percent growth in 2017. In addition, processing industries have been growing at a somewhat faster pace of 3.2 percent.

In the first three quarters fixed capital investment increased by 4.1 percent. Cargo shipments and retail trade are on the rise, having increased by 2.6 percent. Consumer demand growth has been apparent. This is a positive factor. After a lengthy interval, the population’s real income has shown some, albeit very moderate, growth. According to the latest statistics, real incomes will increase by 0.5 percent. I hope that this momentum will be maintained, since real pay levels are on the rise, having grown by 7.4 percent in the first nine months, which is expected to give us 6.9 or 7 percent by the end of the year.

Inflation remains at an acceptable level, although it has increased a little in the past week, by 0.5 percent, I think. Therefore, we will be able to reach the Central Bank’s reference rate of 4 percent and will have an inflation rate of 4.1 percent to 4.2 percent – somewhere just over 4 percent.

The unemployment rate is going down, which is good news. If last year it hit a historical low of 5.2 percent, this year it will be even lower – 4.8 percent.

The trade balance surplus is growing. In 2017, if you remember, it was around $115 billion. Over the three quarters of this year we already achieved $157 million. As of the end of the year, we expect it to reach $190 billion.

Our finances are growing stronger. Our gold and foreign currency reserves have grown by over 7 percent. In the early 2018, they amounted to $432 billion while now they stand at almost $464 billion.

For the first time since 2011, we will have a budget surplus. We are about to reach the federal budget surplus of 2.1 percent of the GDP. The National Welfare Fund has grown by around 22 percent.

The average annual insurance component of the retirement pension stood at 13,677 rubles in 2017. By the end of this year, it will be 14,163 rubles.

Life expectancy has also increased slightly compared to 2017, from 72.7 to 72.9 years.

These are the general results that I wanted to mention in the beginning. Let’s not waste our time and proceed to your questions and my attempts to answer them. (…)

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